Kenenkään ei enää tarvitse yrittää väittää, että Venäjä ei olisi korviaan myöten sekaantunut Itä-Ukrainan sotaan:
First, between August and December of 2014 in Donbass an army had
been formed to replace the disparate groups of militia. The army well
trained and equipped was clearly excessive for the defense of those
stubs of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions now controlled by the armed
forces of Novorossia. We could, of course, believe that the militiamen
found tanks, guns, self-propelled heavy artillery units, multiple rocket
launchers, and other nice things in the Donetsk steppe. They had not
noticed these things there from April to August and then all of a sudden
– rich harvest: everyone who ever gathered mushrooms knows that such a
thing can happen. One could also believe that thousands of instructors
(from sergeants to complete regiment headquarters) necessary to create
an effective military structure just simply came from different
countries following their hearts (which does not happen in this world).
It is even possible to believe the weapons were found and that the
instructors came not only in the required numbers but also with required
specializations. However, spare parts, ammunition and GSM in quantities
sufficient for the intense fighting still had to be supplied by
The minimal approximate size of the armed forces of Novorossia is 35
thousands (about three divisions at the time of the Great Patriotic
war). To conduct regular military operations (and to support the civil
population, at least, at the level of subsistence) the supplies should
reach hundreds of tons a day. For comparison: 6th Army of Paulus at
Stalingrad at the beginning of the encirclement, according to the
calculation of the German command, required 600 tons a day of supplies
only to maintain it battle ready. Paulus thought that the minimal
requirement was 800 tons. At the moment of encirclement, Paulus
commanded up to 240 thousands soldiers (possibly, 30 thousands of
Romanians were not counted by the German command).
That is, whatever the patriots-alarmists say, in Novorossia an army has been created in a shortest time clearly excessive for the defense of the controlled territories. Such army could not have been organized without Russia’s help. Russia is obviously not inclined to spend money and resource (that are not unlimited) without good and sufficient reason. If an army capable of attacking is being formed, it means it will attack.
Hölynpöly Minskin sopimuksista voidaan myös vähitellen unohtaa, Venäjä ei aio eikä ole koskaan aikonut noudattaa niitä:
The last question of possible interest to us: what will happen to
Ukraine as a result of the war? Nothing. There will not be any Ukraine.
The very fact that with Moscow’s help adequate governments structures in
DPR and LPR still have not been created indicates that these republics
are not needed. Novorossia remains a geographic and historic term but is
not becoming a political reality. The army was needed – it had been
organized, whereas the government structures are not needed – and they
have not emerged. This means that Novorossia is not planned. The
patriots-alarmists then draw the conclusion that Novorossia is being
betrayed to Kiev. But if, as we have shown above, Kiev itself is
betrayed, and self-liquidation of the regime is simply a question of
time and not of principle, and we are talking about a short period of
time here, then who would Novorossia be betrayed to?
It will be betrayed to nobody, and nobody will be creating it. What
does Russian need a new Ukraine in the guise of Novorossia for? Russia
also does not need any “buffer state” between the EAEU and EU. It would
only get in a way. Anyway, Russia has a border with NATO countries
(Norway, Estonia, Latvia). Russia needs the entire Ukraine or almost
entire Ukraine. It is now obvious not only to Moscow but also to
Brussels that this territory is incapable of independent development and
is only a source of problems. That is why Novorossia as a federal
region (as well as Malorossia) is possible whereas as an independent
state (independent states) it is not. The world does not have any more
money for independence, be it Ukrainian, be it Novorossian – it is as
simple as that.
It is time for the Empire to return to its natural borders (at the very least, in the south-west).
Sitten voidaan hetkinen miettiä, mikä verran Putinin sanaan voi luottaa, ja miten pitää reagoida siihen, että Venäjä ei enää tarvitse puskurivaltioita.